CARAVAGGIO

A revolutionary model for volcanic thermal emissions monitoring

CARAVAGGIO is an innovative interdisciplinary project that aims to understand how dike propagation relates to heat transport and emissions. This occurs by developing, and experimentally constraining, a comprehensive thermo-chemico-mechanical numerical model of magmatic dyke propagation By combining field-based structural mapping, satellite-based thermal imagery, and laboratory measurements, applied at the ongoing (2021-present), well-monitored Fagradalsfjall and Sundhnúkur eruptions (Iceland). This novel numerical model will allow more realistic simulations of magma transport and will explore to what extent surficial thermal manifestations can be used to track magma transport and define whereand when impending eruptions will occur on the Reykjanes peninsula. In August 2024 and September 2025, we conducted field campaigns at the Fagradalsfjall and Sundhnúkur eruption sites in Iceland. During these campaigns, we measured lava-flow thickness and characteristics at multiple locations, and collected samples for experimental analyses and texture characterization.

In two complementary studies, we have further developed the analysis techniques necessary for building a fully integrated model. (1) During a field expedition in Costa Rica in March 2025, CO₂ measurements during volcanic activity were used to investigate the relationship between the spatial distribution of active fractures and thermal anomalies around the crater. (2) the 2025 Kolumbo volcano-tectonic unrest (Santorini, Greece) was a significant event that enabled investigation of the processeses associated with the seismic crisis by applying the numerical model being developed. This ongoing study explores the critical role of shallow fluid-pressurization dynamics, in combination with mechanical constraints, in controlling the spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity during the salient earthquake crisis.

Find more information about the project in the CORDIS database.